Global Predictions of Environmental Sustainability for Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Response to Climate and Landscape Dynamics

Abstract

Climate change is accelerating the spread of tropical infectious diseases, particularly dengue, transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. This expansion places unprepared regions, especially low- and middle-income countries, at heightened risk, worsening health disparities and hindering progress toward SDGs 3 and 13. Despite land use being a critical factor in vector transmission, it is often overlooked in predictive models. This study integrates climate and land-use data to estimate current and future habitat suitability, providing crucial insights for policy development aimed at outbreak prevention and infection reduction in endemic areas.

Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) ecological modeling was employed to evaluate habitat suitability for Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, incorporating climate, terrain, and land-use variables. Climate and terrain data were obtained from WorldClim v2.1, while land-use data were sourced from the Land Use Harmonization dataset (LUH2). All datasets were standardized to a uniform spatial resolution of approximately 5 arcminutes prior to analysis. The model was trained with 10-fold cross-validation, utilizing global geospatial and occurrence data to determine key environmental drivers. Projections of suitable habitats were then generated for current and future scenarios (2030s, 2050s, and 2090s) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission pathways.

The MaxEnt model demonstrated high predictive accuracy with AUC scores of 0.80 for Aedes aegypti and 0.82 for Aedes albopictus. Key variables affecting distribution included annual mean temperature, precipitation, urban land, and C3 crops. Currently, suitable habitats are near the equator, but the future projections indicate significant expansion, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Aedes albopictus is expected to expand more rapidly than Aedes aegypti, with notable spread across Europe—from west to east— as early as the 2030s.

Our forecasting ecological model provides valuable insights into dengue transmission risks, highlighting areas for prioritizing surveillance and mosquito control efforts in response to evolving climate and land-use dynamics, guiding effective resource distribution.