Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Optimal Mortality Temperature Over 10 Years: Results of a Multi-City Study in Iran
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Abstract
Introduction: Global warming and climate change today is affecting many aspects of lives including Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT) which has not been well addressed in Iran yet. In this study, we did spatio-temporal analysis of MMT across 60 cities in the country over a 10-year period so that according to this work more attentions would be paid to the global warming.
Methods: Dose-response association was used to determine the MMT. To explain the spatial distribution of MMT, we did cluster analysis using Local Moran’s I test. Also, temporal variation in the impact of space on the MMT was evaluated using Generalized additive model, including both linear and smooth components and a factor by curve interaction function which allows for the interaction between year and MMT.
Results: The MMT was variable from -18.3°C (CI 95%: -18.3, -8.8) in the cities of Chaldoran, the North west to 46°C (CI 95%: 4, 46) in Ramhormoz, the South East of the region. We found four statistically significant clusters with positive autocorrelation. Consistent spatial patterns were approximately observed over the 10 years, with hot clusters primarily located in the southern regions and cold clusters in the northern and central regions. The joint impact of latitude and longitude confirmed that the highest MMTs were seen in areas with low latitudes and high longitudes, corresponding to the hot, arid regions in the southeast of Iran.
Conclusion: The observed spatial autocorrelation and clustering patterns highlight the need for targeted and subnational heat-health adaptation strategies to reflect the spatial and temporal variability in MMT.
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