The Assessment of Future Water Quality Under Climate Change Using Artificial Intelligence Modelling

Abstract

Introduction: The impact of climate change on water quality has recently emerged as a significant concern in the scientific community. Due to the crucial role of water in the life of all living creatures and its vulnerability against the climate changes The objective of the present study was to examine the impact of climate change on river water quality and to evaluate the projected future state of river water quality in the context of climate change.

Method: The historical climate data (including temperature, precipitation, humidity, and wind velocity) and water quality data were obtained from the Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) and the Regional Water Organization, respectively. The impact of climate change on water quality parameters was investigated through a correlation analysis and an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in the historical period (2010-2020). The climate change parameters were forecasted by global climate models or general circulation models (GCMs) for the period between 2020 and 2100. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of the predicted river water quality index was interpolated using the ordinary kriging method.

Results: The findings of this study indicate that climate change has had an impact on water quality. Furthermore, there was a notable decline in river water quality between the years 2010 and 2100. The spatial distribution of water quality in historical and future periods demonstrated that the quality of water in the eastern parts of the study area is likely to decline in the future.

Conclusion: The findings of this study demonstrate that climate change is affecting river water quality in Iran. The findings of this study are pertinent to the formulation of policies and strategies for the management of river water quality in arid and semi-arid regions that are experiencing the effects of climate change.