CLIMATE CHANGE and CHILDHOOD STUNTING

Abstract

Background: An estimated one billion children worldwide live in high-risk areas identified by the climate risk index, with about 200 million children under five suffering from severe malnutrition and 148 million experiencing stunted growth. Mongolia, with a high climate risk index, is particularly vulnerable, highlighting the need to study the impact of climate-related factors on child health. In urbanizing areas like Ulaanbaatar, the effects of climate risk on malnutrition are becoming increasingly evident. This study aims to assess the prevalence and trends of malnutrition among children under five and to evaluate the impact of climate risk, with a focus on urbanization and densely populated regions.

Method: The study used data from international databases, including the climate risk index, mean annual temperature, air quality, soil pollution, and precipitation rate. Data on child malnutrition were sourced from the 2000-2019 IHME database and the Mongolian National Statistics Office. Malnutrition was classified by wasting, stunting, and overweight prevalence, and trends were analyzed using the ARIMA model to forecast changes for 2020-2030. Regional differences were examined using a panel model, and the impact of climate change on malnutrition in specific regions was assessed.

Results: The climate risk index in Mongolia is rising, with increasing temperature fluctuations predicted. Between 2000-2019, the prevalence of wasting and stunting in children under five declined, with projected annual decreases of 0.5% and 1.8%, respectively. However, overweight and obesity rates are rising, with Ulaanbaatar showing significantly higher rates.

Conclusion: Climate change impacts children’s nutrition and malnutrition, contributing to rising childhood overweight and obesity. This trend is further aggravated by urbanization, emphasizing the need for improved monitoring and regulation of children's diets, addressing nutrition comprehensively in light of urbanization, population density, and environmental factors.